Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Meritage Homes Admits Decline in Orders

Well, another new home builder has reported a decline in new home sales this quarter. Meritage Homes Corporation says its third quarter results to be near or below expectations. Meritage reported net new orders fell 38% below last year.
"Demand has slowed and resale inventories have risen in many markets, making it more difficult for our buyers to sell their existing homes, and in turn causing higher cancellations and inventories industry-wide," said Steven J. Hilton, Meritage CEO...
Meritage Homes joins Toll Brothers and other new home builders who have been effected by the change in the housing market. Monday we reported Builder Confidence at 15 year low.


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Monday, September 18, 2006

Housing Price Rate Increases Slowly

The selling price for houses rose to a 4.7 annual rate this quarter according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
"Gains in home values have been a major contributor to U.S. economic growth in the past four years. Consumers who feel wealthier spend more and save less. The personal savings rate has been negative for 16 consecutive months. Many consumers have also been able to borrow against their home's rising value, pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy." write Rex Nutting for MarketWatch

Seller can expect a much different buyer than last year. Today's buyers looks to maximize the amount of house or give-backs or inclusions they receive for their dollars. It is truly a different market out there and sellers must adjust get the sale.


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Home Builders Still Cautious

The September New Home Builders’ index is expected to go a bit lower than the August index of 32. The index measures builder confidence. With real estate professionals' inventories high, mortgage rate high, and buyers expecting more for the dollar, builders are feeling less confident about being able to sell regain their investment.

The expectation is that the index will drop to 31 -- the lowest it's been since February 1991.
Source: MarketWatch


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Friday, September 15, 2006

Mortgage Rates Still Falling



Nationally for nine of eleven weeks the mortgage rate has fallen according to Holden Lewis at Bankrate.com. In New Jersey mortage rate are also declining. The national rate moved slightly lower after a speech by president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee, Janet Yellen to the Emeryville, Calif., Chamber of Commerce. Read the Mortgage rate fall for 9th week in last 11.


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Thursday, September 14, 2006

The Golden Triangle

Read about the traditional golden triangle in The Times advertising supplement yesterday. Sorry, I could not find it online. No, it is not really a gold triangle, unless you are a designer of kitchens. The three points of the triangle represent to the location of the refrigerator, the stove top or cooking area, and the sink in a kitchen design. The design strategy is allow the chef to pivot to each item for the most efficiency of movement while preparing meal. While there is no standard about the length of the “legs” of the triangle but the rough rule gives designers plenty of leeway. Designers still have to meet the needs of the client. Kitchens are often a gathering area in families. Oftentimes the members assist with preparation. A designer may have to alter the design to accommodate the different needs. Still making a kitchen with efficiency of movement during food preparation a priority can keep the fun in meal preparation.

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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Tip of the Day: Winterize your Lawn

Well Labor Day has passed, the kids are back in school, the hot hazy days of summer are finally gone for 2006. Fall officially starts on September 23rd. With its coming it is time to get your lawn ready for winter. Here’s a link to DoItYourself.com
While you are preparing the lawn get the gutters cleaned too. Now before the leaves begin falling and as needed all year round. Pay particular attention now to the downspouts (clear clog and flush with the garden hose). Gutters help protect your home investment from soil erosion and water damage. Keep them clear to save on repair and replacement costs of misdirected water damage to your home.

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Monday, September 11, 2006

Municipality Update

This will be a recurring theme whenever something crosses my desk that fits.
Bernards' Takes on Bash and Build Trend

With many of us still grieving the senseless destruction of September 11, 2001, the story about a trend toward bash and build seemed particularly poignant. Imagine a community with modest Colonial and Cape Cod style houses. Imagine some of the older homes in the neighborhood torn down and replaced a McMansion. The ambiance of the community changes immediately and irrevocably. That is exactly what’s happening in communities in New Jersey. Bernards’ Homestead Village is one place where the mayor and council are going to try to enact codes that will prevent the bash and build trend in their community. Read Cathy Bugman's, Star-Ledger article.

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FSBO's May Ask: Is An Agent Really Needed?

With the Internet making more tools available to do-it-yourself homeowners and home buyers one might ask if an agent is really necessary. Amy Hoak of MarketWatch wrote:
”Indeed, the housing slowdown now unfolding only underscores how crucial of a role that brokers have as property owners brave chilly new headwinds. This past week saw a steady drumbeat of reports highlighting a severe slump taking hold, including industry data showing the number of homes on the market soaring to a 13-year high.”
Internet savvy does not sell houses. While it assists the home buyer in communicating the style and area of a future home, getting the best price requires negotiation skill. Companies may promise to charge you less than real estate professionals but if you house sits on the market and doesn’t sell, has few agents actively showing the property, it will not sell. A real estate professional uses staging and targeted marketing to generate interest. The combination, staging and interest, sells houses at full market value or more.


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Thursday, September 07, 2006

Proposed Ordinance Change

With New Jersey running out of building space one can expect communities’ redevelopment efforts to rise. Hightstown’s council proposes to change their redevelopment ordinance because builders would not submit plans that complied with the previous ordinance. The new ordinance draft will exclude the affordable housing units and increase the maximum number of units from 80 to 130. Read Nicole Castelli's article: Proposed ordinance a lure for developers

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Wednesday, September 06, 2006

It All About Maintenance

A Robert Frost poem said "Good fences make good neighbors" but regular maintenance makes good fences. Washington Township residents want to spend less time tending their fences. In an article Ryan Tracy reports Residents desire easy-care yards in the Times of Trenton today. Residents want to replace the care and maintenance of wooden fencing with what they think is a low maintenance material, vinyl. Wooden fencing requires maintenance at least every other year and tends to crack and warp. Vinyl fencing tends to get dirty and will require washing or scrubbing or power-washing or some combination. No matter what the fencing material, to keep that ideal suburban look some effort is required of the owner, be it painting or scrubbing.


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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Short-sightedness May Hurt Seniors and Working Poor

Steve Chambers of the Star Ledger writes Affordable housing in NJ nears its sunset. New Jersey, like other states, offered developers breaks to keep housing affordable for ten to thirty years. The affordable housing helped to assist senior citizens and working class families. Now that the term is ending these communities could see increases in their living space costs. The expiring contracts cover housing projects, assisted living units, section 8, and sections 202 and 515 housing loans. One wonders why 10-30 years rather than a permanent solution.


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Thursday, August 31, 2006

Check Your Credit Report

Eileen Alt Powell reports that federal laws protect consumers' saving and loans in today's The Times of Trenton. Since mortgage companies use credit reports and FICO scores to determine whether a buyer is likely to default on their loan, it is in a buyer’s best interest to check his credit report at least once a year. Get reports from each of the three main bureaus – Equifax, Experian, and Trans-Union; it’s free.
“Often the first place that signs of ID theft show up is on your credit report,” said attorney Joel Winston, an associate director in the Federal Trade Commission’s bureau of consumer protection.
Disputing information found in the report and placing fraud alerts on their credit files can assist consumer who believe they are victims of identity theft. There are laws in place to protect consumers.



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Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Economic Growth Expected to Soften

Reuters reports on a Federal Reserve study that says it was technology and not speculation that drove the housing boom. The study debunks the bubble theory but the market is still deflating much like a balloon or tire with a leak. The study also said much of the economic expansion this period was driven by equity from rising home values. Economic growth could slow when these gains dwindle.
"The wealth effect is fading and the economy is slowing," said Elisabeth Denison, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
John Fisher and Saad Quayyum, economists at the Chicago Fed and authors of the report do not expect growth will soften too far below its long-term trend.



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Too Good To Be True

Greg Saitz reports Wayne Puff and his alleged fraudulent NJ Affordable Homes is answering to the SEC and paying a hefty price in having assets auctioned off. The sell-off of 390 company properties is set for September 29 – October 30. The SEC alleged NJ Affordable Homes was a “Ponzi” scheme “Ponzi” schemes are pretty hard to differentiate from legitimate investment schemes, until they start to fall apart. Still the rule your grandma told you about if something looks to good to be true, it probably is... might not be a bad one to keep in mind. I just love it when Granny’s right!




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Monday, August 28, 2006

Auctions Replace Negotiated Settlement? Not Likely

Just found a article at a fellow NJ blogger site talking about the Prudential, Fox & Roach deal with Sheldon Good & Co. Frankly, auctions are a marketing tool for a quick sale. It is true that there are bargains to be found at auctions, but everybody has to have done his homework and know the market value of the property at bid. Novice or inexperienced bidders can drive the price of a property well beyond the market value. Also non-motivated sellers can set unrealistic reserve prices that prevent the property from selling too. It all about executing the "Know". Perhaps Prudential can help with the "Know". We just have to wait and see.




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Revenue Generators: Condos or Apartments

Read curious article over the weekend in Reuters that said developers who planned upscale condos were likely to down-grade the condos to apartments as a result of the slow housing sales. It would mean eliminating higher-end amenities to cut costs, but it was a way to complete projects.
”"There are definitely an awful lot of projects in the pipeline initially designed as 'for sale' that, I understand, can get converted as they approach completion," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders”

Wondered if that is what will happen by the Trenton-Mercer airport where high-density housing is planned. If so I cannot see how the change would not have affect on the Ewing school system or help the township's revenue generation woes.




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Thursday, August 24, 2006

Opportunity's At the Window

Housing sales continue slide

While it is true housing sale continue to slide and there is an increase in the incentives and terms that sellers and builders are offering buyers and
Indexes extend losses
the stock market is showing concern over the speed of the housing slump houses are continuing to sell.
Mortgage rates fall for 5th week
It looks like there is a window of opportunity opening for buyers now that interest rates have fallen for the fifth week. How long the window will be open or how wide it will get is anybody’s guess. We just have to hope the Fed's economists don’t run scared and shut the window too soon. Still it is a fine economic lesson for those of us watching predictions and interdependences that make up our economic system.


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Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Kudos to the Governor

Gov. Corzine and Commissioner Ryan

Corzine announces flood-control plan

Well it's cheers for Governor Corzine (seen above with Commissioner Kevin Ryan of the Department of Children and Families). Seems the Governor is really going to tackle some to the problems New Jersey residents have faced for years. First he is forcing the legislature to do something about property taxes and now he has proposed a flood-control plan that includes things like doing something about the flooding that happens on Route 29, restricting building around rivers and creeks for a much as 300 feet, and making builders bring-in and take-out equal amounts of fill. Now if the plan gets some tough penalties and strict enforcement maybe New Jersey can continue to be the Garden State even when it rains.

Here's the press release too!


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Monday, August 21, 2006

Tip of the Day: Homeowners’ Insurance

Watch out on your homeowners policy

After all the post-Katrina publicity, most people know that homeowners insurance may not cover flooding expenses but there are other gaps in insurance coverage worth noting. New Jersey residents might want to check their policies and make adjustments. Most important is replacement costs as opposed to actual depreciative value. Replacement insurance is more expensive than the cost of actual depreciative value which is the standard coverage. Replacement insurance is meant to replace the item rather than a company assigned depreciative value. Oftentimes there is a cap placed on the replacement costs. If there is a cap make sure it is set at 150% to 200%. The article is worth a read for homeowners.


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Disturbing Practice Reported

The Times of Trenton ran a story today that is not available online entitled, “Practice hides real deal on homes for sale”. The story talks about a practice that just may undermine public trust in Realtors. The practice is designed to hide from buyers how long a house has been on the market and how far the price has fallen in that time. One broker even said it was a “marketing strategy”. If it is a marketing strategy it is dishonest because its primary purpose is to hide the truth about a property. A realtor is skilled negotiator. Doing that job should compensate for length of time a house is on the market or the number of price reductions.
That the market is cooling means buyers are going to be more reluctant than last year to pay the seller’s price. Price reductions are expected. Tougher negotiations are expected too. I would hate to think my colleagues don’t want to earn their commission. It is my hope those doing this stop before any other action becomes necessary.


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